USA Political Discussion

As the title summarizes, I wanted to gauge people's opinions on why this election turned out the way it did. There's undoubtedly myriad factors. I've spent the last several days perusing sites of wildly different demographics (Tumblr, 4chan, Facebook, Ovarit, Mastodon, KiwiFarms and others to give a small window) to see what the discussion surrounding the election has been between them. I also have been studying the exit polls as more information is collected ( https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls ) and will be referring to those linked specifically throughout this post.

Race is a distinguishing factor, of course. The exit polls themselves reveal the disparity as 85% of Black voters went for Kamala, and of that demographic 91% of Black women. There's always been about 20% of Black men who vote conservatively and this election does not seem to have changed that. What did surprise me race wise was the large Latino/Hispanic vote at 46%. Also the gender disparity within that, as Latino women majority voted Liberal whereas Latino men majority voted Conservative. Which brings me to another interesting observation.

Women as a class have majority voted Liberal since the early 90s by a factor of 10. This statistic repeated itself in this election as well, but one thing of note was how LESS women voted for Kamala in this election than they did for Biden previously. The largest loss in that bracket being younger/middle aged (Gen Xers ala 40-55) White women. In recent years, as Gen Z has become of voting age, there has also been a noted trend of young men of all races becoming markedly more conservative leaning where as young women are becoming more progressive leaning. The difference in this election saw a sharp increase of young, male, first-time voters than any in recent years. This has been ascribed to the Trump campaign's effort to reach out through modern venues such as podcasts (like Joe Rogan) and social media (Elon and Twitter/X) and prominent "Manosphere" influencer types like Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson.

With all of that information dumped as preamble, through these stats and through my own observations I've drawn a few different conclusions. Race obviously plays a defining role regardless of whether one wants to perceive it strictly by the numbers or by the extremism that has proliferated in this country of late. In 2016 53% of white women and 56% of white men who were registered voters voted for Trump. In 2020 that rose to 55% of white women, and in 2024 that number returned to 53%. However, that percentage of white female voters didn't change towards Kamala and instead appear to have voted third party. White male voters actually increased their presence as in both 2020 and 2024 60-61% of white male voters cast their vote for Trump.

However, from the women and more moderate men I've seen expressing their opinions on why they voted Trump, it appears to be less overt racism rather than a genuine apathy or disregard for that facet completely. Where they disagree with the rhetoric and even Trump as a person entirely, yet have less faith in the Democratic party to fix the economy which is their primary concern. I've even seen multiple women who voted Trump say almost verbatim how "Abortion isn't that personal of an issue to me" and how they resented being cast as a 'single-issue voter' because of their sex. There's also a large discussion of alienation. Where white or heterosexual voters have felt their existence has not only be ignored but often vilified by the Democratic party to where they feel like they no longer have a place within it. While many also expressed not to have an opinion one way or another of transgender individuals as a group, many also expressed being motivated by the prospect of transgender care being covered by government insurance when many other conditions, especially for women, are not (breast reductions were a noted example).

My biggest conclusion is the most overt. Where once again we've been given the choice between an accomplished, decades long career politician and a felonious conman. After 2016 I rationalized somewhat because, despite voting for her myself, Hillary was not a favorable option. People on both sides disliked her severely for various and valid reasons (mine being that she was a war hawk). However, seeing the same results towards Kamala who by all other factors than gender is entirely removed from Hillary (solid political career with no scandals, a wholesome marriage and family life, etc) has only left me with the conclusion that being a woman was the largest contributing factor to her loss as well.

Male extremism has been on the rise in various first world countries over the last decade. A very prominent example being South Korea and the rise of 4B feminism as a response. There has been a similar, noted rise in these attitudes among Gen Z men as previously mentioned.

This is already rather long, and there already seems to be so few people participating in this group as it is. So I'll ask again: Why do you think the results ended up as they have? Have you observed similar or different from what I have? What, if anything, could have swayed voters the most or differently?

I found this podcast useful to help me sort through some numbers: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-she-didnt-lose-15m-democratic-votes/id1147092464?i=1000676045153

I think it's going to be a wide range of things, but in the end, I think a LOT of voters just had no idea what was going on. At all. They just were kinda mad that life was hard and voted for "change."

Incumbents around the world have lost, regardless of leaning, in places that experienced inflation above a certain percentage in the last few years. That says a lot to me.

Google searches for "Did Biden drop out?" spiked on the morning of election day in the US. If that is your level of familiarity with politics, what are you actually voting for in the end?

Is there an alternative source for me to listen to this? I was prompted that users are not allowed to listen to "explicit" episodes without logging in and I don't have an Apple account.

What's insane about that (among so many other things) is that we honestly have some of the lowest voter turn out in any democratic nation. The 2020 election saw the largest voter turn out in literal decades, almost as far back as the mid 1900s, and even then it was only a 66% turnout. And yet, this is the caliber of voters that are showing up. People who are ill-informed and voting purely on emotion and speculation.

With the polarization and extremism on both ends of the spectrum at an all time peak, coupled with our rapidly declining rates of education and average IQ, I'm not hopeful that this will remedy itself nor do I have any idea what would be an option to make it better. Given the rates at which the un/under-educated vote conservative as well, there's almost a vested interest in the GOP specifically to continue defunding and disenfranchising public and secondary education for that factor alone.

I really have a hard time buying into the 'ignorant voter' line. Poorly educated, yes, Ignorant' no. It takes effort to vote, and ignorant people tend to not vote (the other 44%). If someone voted for Trump because they thought the price of eggs were too high, they deserve what they get. I have no pity for anyone who actively went out and voted for Trump. Not one bit. I do care for the people who are being hurt by this wave of far right white nationalism, and will stand for them.

In the other side of the coin; Democrats have been historically good at kicking themselves in the butt and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Democrats came to prominence by appealing to the working class majority once upon a time. Now it seems as if that demographic shift to the undereducated or lower working class voters is being swept up by Republicans. I have my own issues with the Democratic party. They've been running almost exclusively on codifying Roe v. Wade for the entirety of my lifetime and in that same lifetime I managed to see it repealed. They became content with the demographics that they KNEW they could keep (women and black/minority voters) and did very little to appease those groups as time went on. The same can be said for even the college educated as they ended up bungling loan forgiveness and rising costs for education. The Biden administration also saw the most visible union busting in key professions with the teamsters and railways.

I'm not a fan of 'Vote Blue No Matter Who' for this exact reason. Many Democrat leaning voters were vocal about how they were abstaining from the vote this cycle because they hate Trump while also having become disillusioned by the constant inaction of Democrats and their failed promises.

There are many factors which create the loss.

The primary one was the economy.

Average inflation rate by year of each presidency since JFK

As you can see the Biden administration has/had the third highest rate of inflation per year at ~5 percent.
For most common people this is untenable. Inflation that high spirals people into survival mode - worried about food, about housing, about clothes and medicine. Most working class common people don't care about social issues when their survival is on the line. Most working class people, the everyman are usually apathetic to these issues. Or if they do have a stance it is secondary to their economic finances. They don't care so much how someone identifies or belongs as to them it doesn't matter if I'm dead cause I couldn't afford bread.

The Nazi regime rose during a high inflation period because people put aside social issues for the promise of being able to eat tomorrow. That's all that mattered to most people with families. "Do I get to eat?" They couldn't see past their primal needs to tomorrow of "Is my neighbor Hans going to go to the camp?"

Both parties used to base their identities in what I'd call foundational needs of a nation. Security, Economy, National Identity, and Health.

During the 80's the Republicans had an identity of "Anti-Communist, High to low economic drip down - If the big cats succeed everyone under them will too, and a strong patriotic identity nationally. With this came restrictive policy on speech, business, and many other factors.

The Democrats had an identity of "The common man, we're all in this together. People are leaving their countries to come here for a better start. The small man makes good money, then the whole economy will do better. We should avoid needless wars and conflict. We shouldn't restrict people's speech.

Those identities have changed a lot by our modern day.

This brings me to reason two

The Democrats forgot the common man.

While trying to stick up for the marginalized people, they forgot about their base.
They made a lot of decisions that isolated their center leaning voters.

You can see this in the hiring of celebs, movie stars, and going on national entertainment, all while having a 1 billion dollar fund. This is happening at the same time many people are in economic down turn.

Vice President Kamala also refused going on JRE - I know she offered for him to go to her, but it's not the same - This loss points because it was chance for the country to get to know her in a more casual conversational setting. Rogan resonates with a lot of people like him or hate him. This is more of a cherry on top of the aforementioned catering to the "elite"

Bernie Sanders just tweeted a similar sentiment to this point.

This second point only reinforces point one.


The third and final reason I can see why there was a loss here:

People thought they had this election in the bag, and just stayed home. Complacency from those who were strongly blue topped with the previous two points I think solidified the loss.

The "not voting" thing doesn't really stand up to numbers. I've seen a number of reports of places having massive voter turnout, many of them even setting local records or coming close.

Or many first time voters replaced those who did stay home - they simply just voted for the Red ticket - seeing as it has been mentioned already that only a small percentage actually vote.

This.

According to Vote.org, voters under 35 made up 81% of registrations on National Voter Registration Day this year, with the largest spike among 18-year-olds. The percentage of young voters has increased to 11% which is a 53% increase from National Voter Registration Day in 2020.

I for the most part agree with you here. The trouble with this election cycle is the 'Vote Blue No Matter Who' was the only way to defeat Fa ... the ultra far right represented by the new Republican party. I thought I would never find myself voting with the likes of Liz and Dick Cheney (again - yes I admit to being a problem back in the 90's into the 00s)

The 'common man' in this case would be primarily young white men.

The Democrats didn't forget the young white man. The young white man was ALWAYS included in the fight Democrats led, but this time they asked for more attention for the most vulnerable in the country: women, LGBTQIA+, disabled and other marginalized communities. The Dems begged people to give a shit about vulnerable people who are at risk of everything bad if Republicans came into power.

The young white man has been told by the right that they don't matter because the right has created an environment where men go unsupported while blaming the left by pointing and saying "See? They hate you for existing." Where men have to toughen up, pulled themselves up by their bootstraps. They've been told that equality means white men's rights will be taken away from them in order to give rights to marginalized vulnerable groups.

That is not an issue the Democrats can fix by catering to these feelings. The Democrats have always spread the message that white men were included, that they're needed, but because the Dems didn't make them their primary focus, they felt slighted and voted for the fire that will burn their country down and kick them to the curb too. This is a supremely common issue in white voters in general. But this also is the reason so many Latinos voted against their own interests!
Source

It's a competition issue. Republicans love making their target demographics feel like their existence is a competition, it's the underlying foundation that makes them able to manipulate people so easily. It's why Capitalism is so favored by the right too: if people are too busy fighting to survive, they will not rise up against the people in power who ensure that life continues to be something you have to do in survival mode instead of being able to relax, get educated and live a prosperous existence. They feed the narrative that you will only be successful in life if you erase your competition and work harder than anyone else until you're burnt to a crisp because it disables people from fighting back.

Latinos who voted for Trump voted for a man who outright told them that he will deport them all because they're so busy trying to survive that 'illegal immigrants' are a threat to them, even if they are immigrants themselves. They don't have the means to worry about whether or not their legal status will eventually be rendered moot.

Joe Rogan refused to find a compromise when Harris was unable to fit the appearance into her schedule. Something which I'm not quite convinced wasn't a deliberate issue created on Rogan's end imo. This reverse narrative has been fed to further insist to young white men that the Dems don't care about them when it's more likely that the Dems have been blocked by right-wing supporters such as Rogan.

Like I said, the right loves to pit people against each other. They created a society where everyone is struggling except for a very small number of people and then they make grand promises, use the fact that so many are undereducated against them to lure them into their promises, all while trying to make Democrats' promises of a better society sound like weak horseshit that will never succeed.

They created this. I don't think Harris could have run a better campaign for the left whatsoever. She did a more than fantastic job. People are just selfish and manipulated by circumstances created by the right into voting for their own downfall.

I'm not that, but I've never felt represented by them (or any party). I've always felt like I slipped through the cracks, and like a lot of the ways they tried to represent any group I fall into seemed hollow and distant, like they were wearing gloves while pointing to this neat little animal they wanted to keep as a pet. And I do sorta consider myself part of the "common man."

I still tend to favor them over Republicans, but I don't feel reducing this use of "common man" to "primarily young, white men" is accurate. That's just the biggest group to have turned against them for it.

The fact they're the biggest group and had the most sway in the election is why I narrowed it down to them, as the argument virtually all over the internet is 'the white man is not represented by the dems because the dems left them out' despite the fact they fit everywhere in the dems' policy plans.

With the greatest respect, - no I do not believe so.

Exit polls from 2016-2020-2024


While I personally believe polls are unreliably useful data as far as how accurate they are - people lie, or they just don't do them, or take them seriously - they are a good visual metric for a shift regardless in demographics.

Across these polls you'll see a general trend to the right

From 2016 to 2024

13 point shift from Blue to Red for Black Men
6 point shift from Blue to Red for Black Women
43 point shift from Blue to Red for Latino Men
22 point shift from Blue to Red for Latina Women


White men actually dropped by 8 points in 2020 from Red to Blue and stayed there in 2024

White Women rose from Blue to Red by 2 points by the 2020 election and then fell 3 points back under their 2016 results.

White Collage Educated Voters rose from Red to Blue by 10 points.

White Uneducated Voters fell 3 points from Red to Blue

Voters of Color who are college educated dropped 27 points from Blue towards Red
Voters of Color who are not college educated dropped 26 points from Blue towards Red

White women College Educated Voters rose 9 points Red to Blue
White women No degree voters rose 1 point from Blue to Red
White men College Educated dropped 9 points from Red to Blue
White Men with no degree dropped 8 points from Red to Blue


Ages 18-29 rose from Red to Blue in 2020 by 5 points, and then dropped 13 points in 2024 from Blue to Red

Ages 30-44 dropped 9 points from Blue to Red

Ages 45-64 dropped in 2020 by 7 points Red to Blue, and then back up 9 Points from Blue to Red

65 and older Dropped 7 points to lead this demographic to favoring neither side.


This to me says that not just the young white men, but many of the demographics are shifting, And the main cause I believe is economics.

In 2020 voters one fifth of voters said they're doing worse than 2016-2020 financially., by this election of 2024 near half of voters say they're doing worse financially.

The major focus on the marginalized groups and their defense falls to the wayside when people are barely scraping by. Most people who are struggling economically put their head down and become rather apolitical, and so if they do go and vote it is going to be "What gets me back to a moment of prosperity?" So if by 2024 near half of voters felt they were doing better in the 2016-2020 years than they are now, it makes sense for a sudden switch. They want relief.

Rogan didn't make a compromise with the other Candidate. Had he gone to her it would scream a message of either a) Favoritism which would lose many of the demographic that follows him, and their votes. b) that the President or VP are royalty and should be catered to in such ways which is antithetical to the American psyche. Americans pride themselves in that their system can raise a pauper to a prince, they had no "royal" class. Either message wouldn't have garnered any favor from the audience that JRE reaches. In my personal opinion I see that it probably would have hurt her further.

As for Vice President Harris not having the time in her schedule, she was able to make other appearances such as on SNL. These mediums are arguably less reaching than the JRE podcast, and they certainly do not reach across the aisle. A 3 Hour sit down just as Trump did might have given those leaning right a chance to see Harris as a common person. Relate to her. Perhaps even see that she was more qualified and suited for the job. I think it was a big mistake on her team's part and only enforces the disconnect that the common man has with the Democratic Party.

I'd argue that that makes my phrasing of "turned against" maybe incorrect, but it doesn't change who the largest group to vote for Trump overall was.

I also don't think it's correct to define who the "common man" is by who they voted for. So overall, I don't think the argument was directed the right way.

Correct. White men voted by and large for the Red Ticket, but by and large this has always been the case.

And to your second point - what I mean by the common man is the average working individual who engages in the electoral processes - if someone abstains from voting then that metric is unfortunately not important because a silent voice isn't a voice against or for.